(2) Water Conflicts - Who Owns the Nile?

Describing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as 'grand' is not an exaggeration. The dam is one of the most ambitious infrastructure project in Africa, so large that the reservoir capacity holds 88% of the Nile River's mean annual flow. It is grand, not just as a physical infrastructure, but as a promise to Ethiopia's future.

 

Figure 1: Map of the Nile Basin.

 

For centuries, the Nile River attracted communities to settle along it. Shared by 11 countries (Figure 1), the flow nurtures a combined population of 450 million. However, the interconnectedness of the nations formed by sharing freshwater river resources also makes the Nile River Basin one of the most vulnerable areas in Africa for water conflicts.

 

Current treaties on water access in the Nile Basin could be traced back to the colonial era, when European powers meddle in water engineering decisions to promote self-interest (such as British imperial ambitions for the Suez Canal in Egypt). Signed between Britain (on behalf of its colonies, Sudan, Kenyan, Tanzania and Uganda) and Egypt, the 1959 Nile Water Agreement recognised the historical and natural rights of Egypt, denying the needs of other riparian countries, including Ethiopia which supplies 70% to 80% of the Nile waters. These bilateral treaties, drafted before the present-day Nile Basin nations became independent, are examples of how colonial legacies can impede present-day water negotiations. Equitable access to water amongst the basin’s nations was never realised, causing upstream nations to lag in socio-economic development due to limited water supply. 

 

This status quo was challenged recently when Ethiopia decided to build the GERD. Not only can GERD combat drought, enhance agricultural production, and strengthen flood management, but also generates enough electricity for more than half of Ethiopia's population. This orients the country towards industrialisation that promises millions out of poverty. The GERD’s massive power-generating capacity also allows 15% of Ethiopian annual electricity production to be exported to 9 East African countries, including Kenya and Sudan. It is a win-win situation for both parties: while Ethiopia benefits economically from selling cheap and clean energy, these exports also promote sustainable regional development for the 200 million lacking electricity access across the 9 countries.

 

However, what is a source of hope and justice for Ethiopia, is a source of fear and hostility for Egypt. To Egypt, GERD causes severe water supply and food security strains to rapid urbanisation and population growth. How much GERD actually affects Egypt depends on Ethiopia. The quicker Ethiopia fills the dam's reservoir, the less water will be released downstream during the period. The Nile contributes to 90% of Egypt's water supply, and Egypt is used to having hegemonic control over the river. Having its water destiny determined by another nation is therefore a dangerously unsettling thought for Egyptians.

 

I am a strong believer that flows of water are flows of power. We have seen Ethiopia pulling out of several GERD negotiations with Egypt, using hegemonic tactics to assert dominance and display sovereignty. Five upstream Nile nations — Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda — have declared their rights to use the river’s flow, claiming that they would no longer be bounded by the 1959 Treaty drawn up by the British. The GERD reflects the renewed ambition of East African nations to expand their power through infrastructure - as an instrument to increase the states’ administrative capabilities and to reshape diplomatic relations.